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Author Topic: What to Buy? What Valuation is justified?  (Read 210 times)
dudette
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Price is What you pay- Value is what you get!


« on: April 30, 2008, 10:46:18 AM »

Investors' dilemma is that they want to participate in the rally but the numbers look too high. While many of these gravity-defying stocks aren't worth their current prices, a few are. Here's how to tell the difference and when to buy them.

First, when a stock has stratospheric valuations, there's a reason: extremely high expectations. Investors expect the company to perform in an exceptional way in two areas: growth in revenues and growth in earnings. The challenge for investors is to discern which of these high-flying stocks deserve their attention.

Look for a stock that is essential, better performing. Does that mean you just buy the stock and hope? Definitely not. It does mean you start to monitor it and when the stock misses an earnings report or doesn't grow revenues fast enough, you look to buy. That takes patience. There's also the risk that the company won't make a misstep, and you won't buy it. If it happens that way, it will be the first company in history to do so. Granted the level may be much higher than the current one when you finally buy it, but the value of the stock may be much better. In other words, the P/E would be lower than the current levels.

The characteristics of the stocks you want to focus on are:

 Market leaders who dominate their niche. The big tend to get bigger, win more contracts and have the largest R&D budgets.

 Earnings that are growing, at an increasing rate, every year.

 Revenue growth that exceeds the industry average.

 Strong management.

 Competing in an high and long-term growth oriented industry sector.

When you find all of these factors in a stock, it won't be a cheap one. But if you want to own it, sometimes you have to pay more than you would like. Currently, that's the entry fee for owning the best stocks in the technology areas. If you are patient and wait for some time you can pick some scrips at a relatively good price.

The key to making the big money with these stocks is to own them for a long time, letting them continue to grow. Even if you buy only a few shares, over time you can do very well as the stock grows, splits, and grows again. Many Infosys shareholders started with 10 shares and now own hundreds. When you buy a great company, you own part of it, so having a small piece of a great one is much better than owning a lot of shares in a loser. If you're interested in making the big bucks, add some sky-rocketting stocks to your portfolio.
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Discount sales in most sectors – Buy at a bargain.

There are lot of good stocks available at bargain prices. There are ways of finding the stocks, which are currently out of favor.

First, look for stocks that are out of favor for a temporary reason.

Second, look for stocks within sectors that are currently out of favor.

Third, use the tight screening methods to bring stock into your “Watch List” Here are some of the parameters to use and benchmarks to begin your search:

P/E ratio: Use a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 30. With current P/E ratios closer to 30, stocks with low P/Es can sometimes signal out of favor stocks. When you find these, make sure you're reading all the latest news items and check the analysts' thinking at ICICIDirect.

Price-to-Sales Ratio:
Also called PSR. This is a macro way of looking at a stock. Many investors like to find stocks with a PSR below 1. It's a good number to start with, so put in .5 as a maximum and leave the minimum open. Be careful though, because many stocks will always carry a low PSR. You're looking for the stocks that have historically been high and are temporarily low.

Earnings growth: Look for atleast 20 per cent. If you can find a stock that has its earnings growing at 20% and its P/E at 10, you've got something worth investigating further. This is known as the PEG or P/E-to-Growth ratio. Sharp investors are looking for a ratio well below 1. In this example, the stock would have had a PSR of .5 (10/20).

Return on Equity: Start at 20% as the minimum and see who qualifies. The return on equity tells you how much your invested rupee is earning from the company. The higher the number, the better your investment should do.

By using just this combination of variables, you can find some interesting stocks. Try to squeeze your search each time you screen by tightening your numbers on each variable. And when you do find a stock, make sure you read all the relevant information from all the stock resources on the Web.
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